DoD Admits US Global Hegemony Threatened By China, Russia In “Persistently Disordered World”.

By 2035, the US could find itself in an environment where Russia or China may match or even exceed the West’s military and economic might in some areas, taking advantage of a “disordered and contested world,” the Pentagon’s research unit said…

Conflict and war in 2035 cannot be understood by the simple identification of a set of individual trends and conditions. Instead, the intersection and interaction of many discrete trends and conditions will ultimately change the character of future conflict and illuminate the reasons why the Joint Force may be called on to address threats to U.S. national interests. In fact, conflict in 2035 is likely to be driven by six specific and unique combinations of trends and conditions.

 

Each of these Contexts of Future Conflict creates a troubling problem space for the Joint Force. They include:

 

1. Violent Ideological Competition. Irreconcilable ideas communicated and promoted by identity networks through violence.

 

2. Threatened U.S. Territory and Sovereignty. Encroachment, erosion, or disregard of U.S. sovereignty and the freedom of its citizens from coercion.

 

3. Antagonistic Geopolitical Balancing. Increasingly ambitious adversaries maximizing their own influence while actively limiting U.S. influence.

 

4. Disrupted Global Commons. Denial or compulsion in spaces and places available to all but owned by none.

 

5. A Contest for Cyberspace. A struggle to define and credibly protect sovereignty in cyberspace.

 

6. Shattered and Reordered Regions. States unable to cope with internal political fractures, environmental stressors, or deliberate external interference.

 

Each context includes elements of both contested norms and persistent disorder. However, their relative importance will vary depending on the objectives of potential adversaries and the capabilities available to them. Dissatisfaction with the current set of international rules, norms, and agreements will cause revisionist actors to make their own – and attempt to enforce them. Meanwhile, the loss of legitimacy or strength by governing authorities will permit other actors to effectively employ coercion and violence in pursuit of power or to further their beliefs.

As RT reports, a new foresight report from The Pentagon’s research division, the Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC), warns that within just 20 years, the US and its allies will live in a world where shaping a global order the way they have since the end of the Cold War would be increasingly difficult, if not impossible.

“The future world order will see a number of states with the political will, economic capacity, and military capabilities to compel change at the expense of others,” reads the paper entitled “The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World.”

 

“Rising powers including for example, China, Russia, India, Iran, or Brazil have increasingly expressed dissatisfaction with their roles, access, and authorities within the current international system,” it states.

 

“Russia will modernize its land, air, and sea-based intercontinental nuclear forces” and make use of deterrent operations such as “snap nuclear exercises, bomber flights, and strategic reconnaissance overflights into US territory,” the Pentagon’s researchers predict.

The report admits Russia and China are among countries dissatisfied “with the current Western-derived notion of international order.”

Russia, China, India, and others, labeled “revisionist states” in the report, would promote alternate international alliances, while the West’s shrinking resources would also have an impact on Washington’s dominance across the globe.

“Although seemingly insignificant today, organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union could grow as China, Russia, India, and others turn to these multinational groups to reorder international rules in their favor.”

 

“Demographic and fiscal pressures will continue to challenge NATO’s capacity and capability,” the paper warns. “In Asia, perceptions of reduced US commitment may encourage current allies and partners to pursue unilateral military modernization efforts or explore alternative alliances and partnerships.”

However, though the Pentagon’s report states that “no power or coalition of powers has yet emerged to openly oppose US global influence and reach,” it claims “the United States will operate in a world in which its overall economic and military power, and that of its allies and partners, may not grow as quickly as potential competitors.”

A number of states “can generate military advantages locally in ways that match or even exceed that of the Joint Force and its partners,” while American technological superiority “will be met by asymmetric, unconventional, and hybrid responses from adversaries.”

Offering a vision of the world in 2035, the paper says in conclusion it is unclear if the US “can be simultaneously proficient at addressing contested norms and persistent disorder with currently projected capabilities, operational approaches, and fiscal resources.”

“There may be times when it is more appropriate to manage global security problems as opposed to undertaking expensive efforts to comprehensively solve them.”

Moscow has repeatedly denied allegations of it harboring global ambitions as opposed to that of the US.

Russia “is not aspiring for hegemony or any ephemeral status of a superpower,” President Vladimir Putin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last year, adding: “We do not act aggressively. We have started to defend our interests more persistently and consistently.”

Earlier this year, Russia adopted a new edition of its foreign policy doctrine, which mentions a shift towards a multipolar and a “polycentric” world.

“A transition to polycentric architecture should be ideally based on the interaction of leading centers of power,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in April. He added however, that he was not sure if that was achievable.

Full Joint Chiefs of Staff Report below…

319740470-joe-2035-july16

Carl Von Clausewitz, On War. (trans. Paret and Howard, 1976/1984), p. 132.
Source: Zero Hedge
 

 

THOUSANDS OF GERMANS DEMAND MERKEL’S RESIGNATION; PROTEST “OPEN DOOR” IMMIGRATION POLICY.

Thousands Of Germans Demand Merkel's Resignation- Protest -Open Door- Immigration Policy-01

With Germany having gone through a surge of seemingly daily killings in the past two weeks when 15 people have died, including four assailants, leaving dozens injured since July 18, the result of two terror attacks and a third killing carried out by men who entered the country as refugees, no one has seen their reputation impacted as much as Angela Merkel. And yet, despite admitting several weeks ago that “terrorists were smuggled in Europe’s refugee flow“, Merkel has been unrelenting on her immigration policy.

Seaking at an annual summer press conference in Berlin on July 28, a defiant Merkel ignored critics of her refugee policies and insisted there would be no change to her open-door migration stance. She also said she bears no responsibility for a recent spate of violent attacks in Germany. “We are doing everything humanly possible to ensure security in Germany,” she recently said but added, “Anxiety and fear cannot guide our political decisions.” Merkel said the goal of jihadists was to “divide our unity and undermine our way of life. They want to prevent our openness to welcoming people. They want to sow hate and fear between cultures and also among religions.” The chancellor said she knows that Germans are worried about their personal safety: “We are doing everything humanly possible to ensure security in Germany,” she noted, but added, “Anxiety and fear cannot guide our political decisions.”

Merkel concluded by refusing to budge: “For me it is clear: we stick to our principles. We will give those who are politically persecuted refuge and protection under the Geneva Convention.” She added: “I cannot promise you that we will never have to take in another mass wave of refugees.”

The problem for Merkel is that increasingly less of her countrymen share her sentiment. A recent poll found that two-thirds of Germans oppose a fourth term for Merkel. Only 36% of respondents said they wanted Merkel and her CDU to lead the government after federal elections in 2017.

It got even much worse for Merkel yesterday when Bavaria’s premier, a key coalition ally for Merkel’s CDU, whose state bore the brunt of recent attacks in Germany, took aim at Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-door refugee policy on Saturday by rejecting her “we can do this” mantra, withdrawing his support over this key aspect of Merkel’s domestic policy.

The comments from Seehofer, who said following the latest attacks that “all our predictions have been proven right”, came after Merkel on Thursday defiantly repeated “we can do this” and vowed not to bend her refugee policy. The stark disasgeement by Seehofer, whose Christian Social Union is the Bavarian sister party of Merkel’s conservatives, will exacerbate the chancellor’s difficulty in standing by a policy that her critics have blamed for the attacks and which risks undermining her popularity before federal elections next year.

“‘We can do this’ – I cannot, with the best will, adopt this phrase as my own,” Seehofer told reporters after a meeting of his party. “The problem is too big for that and the attempts at a solution thus far too unsatisfactory,” said Seehofer. “Restrictions on immigration are a condition for security in this country.”


Bavarian state premier and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) Horst Seehofer

Five attacks in Germany since July 18 have left 15 people dead, including four assailants, and dozens injured. Two of the attackers had links to Islamist militancy, officials say. Germany is wrestling with how to respond.

Jens Spahn, deputy finance minister and a senior member of Merkel’s conservatives, said that integrating the refugees was a Herculean task but the government needed to put more pressure on those new arrivals unwilling to make an effort to fit in. “A ban on the full body veil – that is the niqab and the burka – is overdue,” he told daily Die Welt. “My impression is that we all underestimated a year ago what would come upon us with this big refugee and migration movement.” Well, maybe not all.

Over a million migrants have entered Germany in the past year, many fleeing war in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq. In an editorial, magazine Der Spiegel noted that the government of Helmut Schmidt, who served as chancellor from 1974 to 1982, toughened laws to combat the ultra-leftist Red Army Faction, which attacked the political and business elite, but added: “the terrorists nonetheless carried on bombing.”

* * *

But worst of all, the anger has now openly spilled over from the top political ranks and the front pages of local newspapers to the streets, as more than 5,000 people protested in Berlin and thousands more throughout Germany over Merkel’s ‘open-door’ policy that many have blamed for the four brutal terrorist attacks that left over a dozen dead.

Indeed, the local population appears to have finally had enough, after an axe rampage, a shooting spree, a knife attack and a suicide bombing in the span of a week stunned Germany.

‘Merkel must go’ has been trending on social media, with people posting powerful pictures including one claiming that she has blood on her hands after recent attacks. The picture shows her splattered with blood, while another depicts her wearing a Burka, the Daily Mail reports.

A new survey found that 83 per cent of Germans see immigration as their nation’s biggest challenge – twice as many as a year ago.

And on Saturday, thousands of protesters calling for her to step down also met counter-protests from the anti-right-wing movement, in Germany – which is still in a state of high alert.

According to the Mail, more than 5,000 took to the streets in Berlin with thousands more protesting throughout Germany, demanding an end to the “open door” policy and seeking Merkel’s resignation.


The Chancellor faced a fresh wave of fury after it emerged that two recent terror attacks and a third killing were carried out by men who entered the country as refugees, which further fuelled the right-wing movement.


Thousands gathered in the capital for the march today, which was called Wir fuer Berlin und Wir fuer Deutschland (We for Berlin and We for Germany)


‘Merkel must go’ (pictured on the placard today) has been trending on
social media, with people posting powerful pictures including one
claiming that she has blood on her hands after recent attacks


Despite the massive waves of criticism from right-wingers (pictured, Berlin, today, wearing a shirt that says The German Reich lives within us), Merkel defended her policy this week.


Several hundred people demonstrate with banner that reads ‘Berlin! Better without Nazis’ against a right-wing populist march in Berlin


Police manned the streets of Germany, which is still on high alert following the attacks, as right-wing protesters met thousands of counter-demonstrators (pictured, Berlin)


There was a heavy police presence (pictured) in Washington Square in Berlin as activists protested today.

* * *

Any more attacks by refugees, and with no change in immigration policy they are virtually assured, will result in even more political bickering, and even more popular protests until finally Merkel herself may be forced to admit defeat, which would be the most devastating blow for Europe yet. It would be ironic if the woman who has almost single-handedly kept Europe together over the past 6 years, surviving fears of Grexit, banking crises, a Brexit and so much more, is ultimately undone by a mistake she herself has made.

The last question: should the German chancellor be swept away, just who will have the stamina and the strength to keep a “united” Europe – Merkel’s political legacy – together?

By: Tyler Durden

Source: zerohedge.com